Home Starts Up - Inflation Not Helping

Consumer prices resurged a bit and builders broke ground on more new homes in December, but the activity did little to change economists' view that inflation is cooling and that the housing slump has yet to hit bottom.

A bump up in energy prices caused consumer prices to rise 0.5% in December from a month earlier after remaining flat or falling in the three previous months, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices — a measure officials at the Federal Reserve watch closely — rose 0.2%, in line with economists' expectations, as apparel retailers ratcheted back holiday discounts. Compared with a year earlier, overall prices rose 2.5% and core prices were up 2.6%.

Meanwhile, unusually warm weather prompted new-home construction to rise for the second consecutive month, the Commerce Department reported. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.64 million in December, housing starts were up 4.5% from November, but still down 18% for the year. All of the gain came in multi-unit structures such as apartment buildings. Construction of new single-family homes, which account for about three-fourths of total activity, fell 4.1% in December from the previous month despite the warm weather. Single-family housing starts were down 25% from a year earlier.

Economists saw the reports as well within the game plan of Fed policy makers, who expect persistent weakness in housing to help cool the economy, gradually bringing core inflation back down to a more acceptable annual level of 1% to 2%. In the fourth quarter, core prices rose at an annualized rate of 1.4%.  

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Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders Rise

Sales of new homes and orders for durable goods jumped in December, suggesting the weakest parts of the U.S. economy are on the mend.

Home purchases rose 4.8 percent to an annual pace of 1.12 million, the fastest since April, the Commerce Department reported today. Orders to factories for goods made to last at least several years rose 3.1 percent, the department also said.

The figures indicate that housing and manufacturing are past the worst of a downturn that prompted some economists to predict a recession and interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The reports also suggest that central bankers, who meet next week, will signal they're reluctant to either lower or increase borrowing costs.

"The Fed is likely to read this as being in line with or better than they were hoping for,'' said Nigel Gault, director of U.S. research at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. "They're going to say let's keep things exactly where they are on interest rates.''

Economists had forecast that new home sales would rise to an annual rate of 1.052 million, from an originally recorded 1.047 million in November, according to the median of 67 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

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Selling a Home During a Slumping Market

Selling a home during a slumping market can be a grueling process for owners. Going it alone can be especially tough — and now a smaller proportion of sellers does that.

For-sale-by-owner deals increased steadily for two decades into the late 1990s. They accounted for 18% of sales in 1997, but that has fallen to 12%, says the National Association of Realtors.

Many homeowners feel that in a difficult market a real estate agent can sell a property more quickly and fetch more money than can an owner alone, says NAR spokesman Walter Molony.

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Are you in the process of selling your home?  If yes, share with us your experience.  What does it mean to sell a house during a slumping market?  We'd love to hear from you.

Heating Expenses Down Again This Winter

Falling energy prices are helping lower household heating expenses this winter even more than originally forecast.  

According to the Energy Department, the average U.S. household will pay $873 in heating bills this winter, down from $938 forecast a month ago and the $948 average last winter. If so, consumers this winter will have the lowest heating tab in two years and the first year-over-year decline in five years.  

A sharp drop in oil and natural gas prices is the main reason for the lowered estimate. Mild weather is also allowing consumers to conserve energy.  

How has the lower energy prices affected your household budget this winter?  Leave us your comment on that below. 

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Sales of New and Existing Homes Sliding

Mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae said that sales of new and existing homes will continue their slide this year, due largely to investors pulling out of the housing market.

In an economic and housing outlook, Fannie Mae said sales of new homes are expected to drop by 7.1% in 2007, while sales of existing homes are expected to drop 8.1% this year.

Fannie Mae's projections follow similar estimates released by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade group forecast declines in 2007 of 7% in existing-home sales and 8% in new-home sales.   Fannie economists said the projected sales for 2007 would be the lowest since 2002.

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If you're in the market for a new home, tell us how you feel about the current state of new home sales.  Does it make you feel inclined to wait, or hurry, with a new home decision.  We'd love to hear your comments.

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