October 25, 2007

Real Estate: No Light in Sight

Real Estate: No Light in Sight

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For those in the real estate industry and for those looking to buy or sell a home, it could take until 2009 to catch a break.

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That's the forecast from Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).�� Duncan expects national median home prices to fall between 2 percent and 4 percent both this year and next. Prices will be held back by an oversupply of homes for sale, an increase in foreclosures and continued uncertainty among mortgage investors.

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For this year, Duncan is predicting a 22 percent drop in new home sales and a 12 percent drop in existing home sales, followed by a 10 percent drop in each next year.

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What? No good news?

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There's one group of home buyers, home sellers and loan originators who will have an easier time of it than everyone else: those dealing with "anything that's conventional and conforming," Duncan said. In other words, 30-year fixed rate mortgages for borrowers with good credit under the "jumbo" cutoff of $417,000.

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